AI-generated market predictions and analysis
Confidence
73%
Fair Value
24¢
Current
62¢
Edge
10.0¢Closes May 26 · Created May 25
Traded“Wide Spread flagged a 10% edge: model fair value 24c vs market 62c on "Bitcoin above $108,000 on May 25?".”
Confidence
63%
Fair Value
29¢
Current
47¢
Edge
13.0¢Closes May 26 · Created May 23
Traded“Stale Price flagged a 13% edge: model fair value 29c vs market 47c on "Ethereum above $3,900 on May 25?".”
Confidence
81%
Fair Value
26¢
Current
71¢
Edge
8.0¢Closes May 29 · Created May 21
Traded“Extreme Value flagged a 8% edge: model fair value 26c vs market 71c on "Solana above $180 on May 25?".”
Confidence
62%
Fair Value
68¢
Current
54¢
Edge
7.0¢Closes May 26 · Created May 20
Traded“Mean Reversion flagged a 7% edge: model fair value 68c vs market 54c on "S&P 500 close above 5,900 today?".”
Confidence
72%
Fair Value
53¢
Current
38¢
Edge
8.0¢Closes May 29 · Created May 17
Traded“Volume Spike flagged a 8% edge: model fair value 53c vs market 38c on "WTI crude below $72 this week?".”
Confidence
59%
Fair Value
42¢
Current
29¢
Edge
14.0¢Closes May 26 · Created May 16
Traded“Event Cluster Arb flagged a 14% edge: model fair value 42c vs market 29c on "CPI YoY above 3.2% for May?".”
Confidence
88%
Fair Value
16¢
Current
43¢
Edge
9.0¢Closes May 30 · Created May 14
Traded“Favorite-Longshot flagged a 9% edge: model fair value 16c vs market 43c on "GDPNow Q2 estimate above 2.5%?".”
Confidence
85%
Fair Value
78¢
Current
66¢
Edge
16.0¢Closes May 31 · Created May 13
Traded“Expiry Convergence flagged a 16% edge: model fair value 78c vs market 66c on "Celtics win Game 5?".”
Accuracy: 56.5%
| Market | Category | Side | Strategy | Fair Value / Price | Edge | Result | Trade P&L | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Knicks win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-NYK | Sports | NO | New Listing | 47¢ / 36¢ | 12.0¢ | Expired | +$7.71 | May 13, 2026, 2:36 PM |
Fed cuts 25bps in June? KXFED-26JUN-CUT25 | Economics | NO | Liquidity Provision | 19¢ / 22¢ | 13.0¢ | Correct | +$1.41 | May 11, 2026, 5:08 PM |
NYC high above 82°F today? KXTEMP-26MAY25-NYC-T82 | Climate | NO | Wide Spread | 46¢ / 58¢ | 16.0¢ | Correct | +$6.16 | May 9, 2026, 8:30 PM |
Weekend box office #1 above $120M? KXMOVIE-26MAY-T120M | Entertainment | YES | Stale Price | 48¢ / 31¢ | 12.0¢ | Incorrect | +$3.87 | May 8, 2026, 8:48 AM |
Bitcoin above $110,000 on May 26? KXBTCD-26MAY26-T110000 | Crypto | NO | Extreme Value | 21¢ / 41¢ | 14.0¢ | Incorrect | +$1.75 | May 7, 2026, 3:38 AM |
S&P 500 above 6,000 this week? INXW-26MAY29-T6000 | Financials | YES | Mean Reversion | 38¢ / 19¢ | 16.0¢ | Correct | -$5.93 | May 5, 2026, 4:40 AM |
GOP holds Senate majority in 2026? KXSENATE-26-GOP | Politics | YES | Volume Spike | 83¢ / 73¢ | 9.0¢ | Correct | -$5.74 | May 3, 2026, 1:16 PM |
Bitcoin above $108,000 on May 25? KXBTCD-26MAY25-T108000 | Crypto | YES | Event Cluster Arb | 70¢ / 62¢ | 17.0¢ | Incorrect | +$4.53 | May 1, 2026, 4:15 AM |
Ethereum above $3,900 on May 25? KXETHD-26MAY25-T3900 | Crypto | YES | Favorite-Longshot | 20¢ / 47¢ | 15.0¢ | Incorrect | +$2.39 | Apr 29, 2026, 11:51 PM |
Solana above $180 on May 25? KXSOLD-26MAY25-T180 | Crypto | NO | Expiry Convergence | 61¢ / 71¢ | 6.0¢ | Correct | +$4.27 | Apr 28, 2026, 7:06 AM |
S&P 500 close above 5,900 today? INXD-26MAY25-T5900 | Financials | NO | New Listing | 70¢ / 54¢ | 8.0¢ | Correct | -$3.03 | Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 AM |
WTI crude below $72 this week? KXWTIW-26MAY29-B72 | Commodities | NO | Liquidity Provision | 43¢ / 38¢ | 6.0¢ | Correct | +$3.73 | Apr 25, 2026, 1:39 AM |
CPI YoY above 3.2% for May? CPI-26MAY-T3.2 | Economics | YES | Wide Spread | 50¢ / 29¢ | 12.0¢ | Correct | +$4.10 | Apr 23, 2026, 2:00 PM |
GDPNow Q2 estimate above 2.5%? GDPNOW-26Q2-T2.5 | Economics | NO | Stale Price | 27¢ / 43¢ | 16.0¢ | Correct | +$8.32 | Apr 21, 2026, 6:31 PM |
Celtics win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-BOS | Sports | NO | Extreme Value | 33¢ / 66¢ | 11.0¢ | Correct | +$3.52 | Apr 19, 2026, 2:44 PM |
Knicks win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-NYK | Sports | YES | Mean Reversion | 43¢ / 36¢ | 12.0¢ | Correct | +$6.06 | Apr 18, 2026, 10:13 AM |
Fed cuts 25bps in June? KXFED-26JUN-CUT25 | Economics | YES | Volume Spike | 80¢ / 22¢ | 12.0¢ | Correct | -$1.22 | Apr 16, 2026, 7:54 PM |
NYC high above 82°F today? KXTEMP-26MAY25-NYC-T82 | Climate | YES | Event Cluster Arb | 82¢ / 58¢ | 12.0¢ | Correct | -$0.94 | Apr 14, 2026, 12:51 PM |
Weekend box office #1 above $120M? KXMOVIE-26MAY-T120M | Entertainment | NO | Favorite-Longshot | 23¢ / 31¢ | 17.0¢ | Incorrect | +$0.59 | Apr 13, 2026, 6:34 AM |
Bitcoin above $110,000 on May 26? KXBTCD-26MAY26-T110000 | Crypto | NO | Expiry Convergence | 48¢ / 41¢ | 10.0¢ | Incorrect | -$6.56 | Apr 11, 2026, 5:51 PM |
S&P 500 above 6,000 this week? INXW-26MAY29-T6000 | Financials | NO | New Listing | 38¢ / 19¢ | 7.0¢ | Incorrect | -$4.83 | Apr 9, 2026, 2:16 AM |
GOP holds Senate majority in 2026? KXSENATE-26-GOP | Politics | NO | Liquidity Provision | 54¢ / 73¢ | 11.0¢ | Correct | +$4.64 | Apr 8, 2026, 4:36 AM |
Bitcoin above $108,000 on May 25? KXBTCD-26MAY25-T108000 | Crypto | NO | Wide Spread | 47¢ / 62¢ | 10.0¢ | Correct | +$5.00 | Apr 6, 2026, 11:55 AM |
Ethereum above $3,900 on May 25? KXETHD-26MAY25-T3900 | Crypto | NO | Stale Price | 66¢ / 47¢ | 13.0¢ | Incorrect | +$1.00 | Apr 4, 2026, 1:30 AM |
Solana above $180 on May 25? KXSOLD-26MAY25-T180 | Crypto | YES | Extreme Value | 47¢ / 71¢ | 14.0¢ | Correct | -$7.44 | Apr 2, 2026, 10:04 AM |
S&P 500 close above 5,900 today? INXD-26MAY25-T5900 | Financials | YES | Mean Reversion | 63¢ / 54¢ | 16.0¢ | Incorrect | -$2.55 | Mar 31, 2026, 11:58 PM |
WTI crude below $72 this week? KXWTIW-26MAY29-B72 | Commodities | NO | Volume Spike | 60¢ / 38¢ | 10.0¢ | Incorrect | -$3.03 | Mar 30, 2026, 7:47 PM |
CPI YoY above 3.2% for May? CPI-26MAY-T3.2 | Economics | NO | Event Cluster Arb | 70¢ / 29¢ | 7.0¢ | Correct | +$1.23 | Mar 28, 2026, 3:48 PM |
GDPNow Q2 estimate above 2.5%? GDPNOW-26Q2-T2.5 | Economics | YES | Favorite-Longshot | 32¢ / 43¢ | 12.0¢ | Expired | +$9.55 | Mar 26, 2026, 1:56 PM |
Celtics win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-BOS | Sports | NO | Expiry Convergence | 82¢ / 66¢ | 11.0¢ | Incorrect | -$4.21 | Mar 25, 2026, 1:28 PM |
Knicks win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-NYK | Sports | YES | New Listing | 37¢ / 36¢ | 12.0¢ | Correct | -$1.73 | Mar 23, 2026, 5:34 AM |
Fed cuts 25bps in June? KXFED-26JUN-CUT25 | Economics | NO | Liquidity Provision | 47¢ / 22¢ | 9.0¢ | Incorrect | +$4.02 | Mar 21, 2026, 6:35 PM |
NYC high above 82°F today? KXTEMP-26MAY25-NYC-T82 | Climate | YES | Wide Spread | 74¢ / 58¢ | 10.0¢ | Expired | -$2.31 | Mar 20, 2026, 1:56 PM |
Weekend box office #1 above $120M? KXMOVIE-26MAY-T120M | Entertainment | NO | Stale Price | 75¢ / 31¢ | 9.0¢ | Expired | -$4.10 | Mar 18, 2026, 12:56 AM |
Bitcoin above $110,000 on May 26? KXBTCD-26MAY26-T110000 | Crypto | YES | Extreme Value | 27¢ / 41¢ | 3.0¢ | Incorrect | -$2.49 | Mar 16, 2026, 9:00 AM |
S&P 500 above 6,000 this week? INXW-26MAY29-T6000 | Financials | NO | Mean Reversion | 26¢ / 19¢ | 10.0¢ | Incorrect | -$1.71 | Mar 14, 2026, 11:52 PM |
GOP holds Senate majority in 2026? KXSENATE-26-GOP | Politics | YES | Volume Spike | 77¢ / 73¢ | 5.0¢ | Incorrect | +$4.07 | Mar 13, 2026, 2:52 PM |
Bitcoin above $108,000 on May 25? KXBTCD-26MAY25-T108000 | Crypto | YES | Event Cluster Arb | 39¢ / 62¢ | 14.0¢ | Incorrect | +$2.63 | Mar 11, 2026, 7:30 PM |
Ethereum above $3,900 on May 25? KXETHD-26MAY25-T3900 | Crypto | NO | Favorite-Longshot | 53¢ / 47¢ | 4.0¢ | Correct | +$0.73 | Mar 9, 2026, 4:55 PM |
Solana above $180 on May 25? KXSOLD-26MAY25-T180 | Crypto | NO | Expiry Convergence | 74¢ / 71¢ | 3.0¢ | Correct | +$7.42 | Mar 8, 2026, 2:24 PM |
S&P 500 close above 5,900 today? INXD-26MAY25-T5900 | Financials | NO | New Listing | 43¢ / 54¢ | 10.0¢ | Correct | -$1.53 | Mar 6, 2026, 8:54 AM |
WTI crude below $72 this week? KXWTIW-26MAY29-B72 | Commodities | NO | Liquidity Provision | 68¢ / 38¢ | 14.0¢ | Correct | -$2.85 | Mar 4, 2026, 8:41 PM |
CPI YoY above 3.2% for May? CPI-26MAY-T3.2 | Economics | YES | Wide Spread | 22¢ / 29¢ | 7.0¢ | Correct | +$1.13 | Mar 3, 2026, 7:47 AM |
GDPNow Q2 estimate above 2.5%? GDPNOW-26Q2-T2.5 | Economics | YES | Stale Price | 33¢ / 43¢ | 13.0¢ | Incorrect | -$1.77 | Mar 1, 2026, 4:11 PM |
Celtics win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-BOS | Sports | NO | Extreme Value | 30¢ / 66¢ | 5.0¢ | Expired | +$9.53 | Feb 27, 2026, 12:10 PM |
Knicks win Game 5? KXNBA-26MAY26-NYK | Sports | NO | Mean Reversion | 22¢ / 36¢ | 16.0¢ | Correct | +$6.26 | Feb 26, 2026, 4:53 AM |
Fed cuts 25bps in June? KXFED-26JUN-CUT25 | Economics | NO | Volume Spike | 35¢ / 22¢ | 10.0¢ | Correct | -$1.45 | Feb 23, 2026, 11:27 PM |
NYC high above 82°F today? KXTEMP-26MAY25-NYC-T82 | Climate | YES | Event Cluster Arb | 59¢ / 58¢ | 16.0¢ | Incorrect | -$0.66 | Feb 22, 2026, 10:15 PM |
Weekend box office #1 above $120M? KXMOVIE-26MAY-T120M | Entertainment | YES | Favorite-Longshot | 82¢ / 31¢ | 5.0¢ | Expired | -$3.70 | Feb 20, 2026, 9:04 PM |
Bitcoin above $110,000 on May 26? KXBTCD-26MAY26-T110000 | Crypto | NO | Expiry Convergence | 47¢ / 41¢ | 13.0¢ | Incorrect | -$8.11 | Feb 19, 2026, 4:18 AM |
S&P 500 above 6,000 this week? INXW-26MAY29-T6000 | Financials | YES | New Listing | 23¢ / 19¢ | 11.0¢ | Correct | -$2.26 | Feb 17, 2026, 4:03 PM |
GOP holds Senate majority in 2026? KXSENATE-26-GOP | Politics | NO | Liquidity Provision | 71¢ / 73¢ | 5.0¢ | Incorrect | -$4.04 | Feb 15, 2026, 5:22 PM |
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