Autonomous strategy performance and parameter tuning history
Capture value in markets with large bid-ask gaps.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
70.8%
[50.8%–85.1%]
W / L
17 / 7
Total P&L
+$53.86Avg P&L
+$2.24Last trade: May 22, 2026, 4:03 AM
{
"min_spread": 0.06,
"min_volume": 500,
"max_position": 50
}Trade markets that haven't repriced after related events settle.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
45.8%
[27.9%–64.9%]
W / L
11 / 13
Total P&L
-$21.48Avg P&L
-$0.89Last trade: May 22, 2026, 4:55 AM
{
"staleness_minutes": 12,
"min_move": 0.04
}Buy near-certain outcomes still mispriced near expiry.
Trades
24
Win Rate
66.7%
[46.7%–82.0%]
W / L
16 / 8
Total P&L
+$37.98Avg P&L
+$1.58Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"price_floor": 0.92,
"hours_to_close": 48
}Fade sharp price moves that overshoot fair value.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
58.3%
[38.8%–75.5%]
W / L
14 / 10
Total P&L
+$21.14Avg P&L
+$0.88Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"z_threshold": 2,
"lookback": 24
}Ride momentum when informed flow hits thin markets.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
37.5%
[21.2%–57.3%]
W / L
9 / 15
Total P&L
-$14.53Avg P&L
-$0.61Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"volume_multiple": 3,
"min_liquidity": 1000
}Exploit mutually exclusive markets whose YES prices don't sum to 100.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
54.2%
[35.1%–72.1%]
W / L
13 / 11
Total P&L
-$25.92Avg P&L
-$1.08Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"min_overround": 0.03
}Sell overpriced longshots, buy underpriced favorites.
Trades
24
Win Rate
62.5%
[42.7%–78.8%]
W / L
15 / 9
Total P&L
-$0.21Avg P&L
-$0.01Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"longshot_ceiling": 0.1,
"favorite_floor": 0.9
}Snipe markets near close still priced far from settlement.
Trades
24
Win Rate
54.2%
[35.1%–72.1%]
W / L
13 / 11
Total P&L
+$4.63Avg P&L
+$0.19Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"hours_to_close": 6,
"min_gap": 0.08
}Trade newly listed markets with naive initial pricing.
Trades
24 (+1 open)
Win Rate
37.5%
[21.2%–57.3%]
W / L
9 / 15
Total P&L
-$21.25Avg P&L
-$0.89Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"max_age_hours": 4,
"min_edge": 0.05
}Earn spread in stable, wide-spread markets using orderbook depth.
Trades
24
Win Rate
58.3%
[38.8%–75.5%]
W / L
14 / 10
Total P&L
+$7.37Avg P&L
+$0.31Last trade: May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM
{
"min_depth": 200,
"target_spread": 0.04
}Auto-tuning decisions and strategy adaptations
Auto-disabled after win rate fell to 49% over 31 resolved trades (CI lower 36%). Re-enable after parameter review.
Raised price_floor 0.90 -> 0.92 after near-expiry losses clustered in the 0.90-0.92 band.
Detected lower realized vol regime in crypto markets; widened z_threshold to reduce false fades.
Sports markets show the most persistent wide spreads pre-tipoff; allocating more budget there.
Longshot overpricing strongest in entertainment/box-office markets with thin liquidity.